Monday Morning Falcons Hangover: Special Post Draft / Post Osama Bin Laden Edition

There's an Odd Couple joke somewhere in here.

It has been awhile since I have written. To be honest, there has not been a lot to write about. The NFL Labor Mess cast a pall over all football proceedings and made thinking about football not even remotely fun for me.

Plus, I have spent much of the last two months doing everything I could to get back into school. Long story short: I had to take some time off because of personal reasons, but because I was out longer than a full academic year, I had to reapply and there were grade change issues involved, and it was pretty much a big mess.

All of that work paid off though, as I’m back in school, have only a few classes until I attain my degrees, and will be able to enjoy one last football season at UGA (looking to be a HUGE bounce-back season for the Dawgs, hoping SEC East winners!) before the real, real world beckons.

Draft Hangover

First thing’s first: anyone ripping the Falcons for trading away five draft picks for Julio Jones is WRONG.

The Falcons traded away four draft picks for Julio Jones: this year’s 2 and 4, and next year’s 1 and 4. They swapped 1’s with Cleveland, moving up 21 spots from 27 to 6 to take what many experts believe is the best receiver in the draft.

So, getting that out of the way, was the four draft picks the Falcons traded to Cleveland “too much” for a player who will change the way every single team can defend the Falcons offense, opening up the field not only for Roddy White, but for Tony Gonzalez, Harry Douglas, Michael Turner, and the new kid, Jacquizz Rodgers?

Um, no.

The Falcons were 16th in the league in total yards last year. They were 31st… THIRTY-FIRST in offensive plays of 20 yards or more. Roddy White had his worst YPC averages of his career (even when he was trying to catch errant throws from the DogKilla). Matt Ryan had the worst YPC average of his career, and the second worst of any QB in the playoffs.

The Falcons need defensive help, it is true, but the Falcons offense scared NO ONE last year. Part of that is because of Mike Smith’s play not to lose philosophy of football, and part of that is the fact that they possessed no receiver to really stretch the field (White isn’t a burner) or take double teams away from White. I mean, it is absolutely amazing that Roddy White led the NFL in receptions last year with all of the double teams he faced.

Now, the Falcons possess a burner receiver in Julio Jones who will stretch the field. He will take double teams off of White, yes, but even more than that, Jones will do so much more.

Jones will keep opposing defenses from dropping one or both safeties into the box to stop the run, meaning Michael Turner will only be seeing the normal seven or six men in the box. Imagine Turner running into the second level of a defense unfettered. Can you say rampaging bull?

By keeping the safeties honest, Jones will open up the middle of the field for Harry Douglas, the Falcons’ slot receiver and Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta’s HOF TE. Think about it: once again, TG will be single covered by a smaller, slower LB like in the earlier days of his career, no bracketed coverage with safety help. First downs to the TE all… day… LONG.

Jones will also open up a more creative ability to approaching the Falcons offense, allowing for more screen passes to succeed with Jacquizz Rodgers creating mismatches on LBs without having to worry about safeties who cheated-up.

To put it simply, Jones makes Atlanta offense much like Green Bay’s offense, or Indy’s offense, or Arizona’s offense from a few years ago.

He makes other teams fear the Falcons. When is the last time anyone said that?

As for the defensive help that the Falcons need, if you don’t think the team will fill their pass-rushing defensive end need (Ray Edwards, Charles Johnson) in free agency, y’all haven’t paid attention to how this team has done business in the last three years.

The fact is, the Falcons could afford to give up four draft picks for Julio Jones, who is faster than AJ Green, who is a better blocker than AJ, and who, by all accounts, is a better team leader than AJ (and it pains me to say that as a loyal Bulldog), because the Falcons only had two glaring holes to fill, not four or five.

And in the end, Julio Jones, like Larry Fitzgerald or Megatron, is a slam-dunk, sure-fire pick. None of the DE’s in the draft were sure-fire picks. NONE. Most of them were Big-10 players, and we all know you are far more likely to get a bust d-lineman from the Big-10 than any other conference.

If you had the chance three years ago to draft Megatron, would YOU trade four picks for him?

You of course answer “HELL YEAH!”

So stop killing the Falcons for doing the same damn thing.

As for the rest of the Falcons' draft, it was excellent if you choose to forget they took a kicker in Round 6 when TE Virgil Green was still on the board. And I choose to forget they took a kicker in Round 6 when TE Virgil Green was still on the board.

Akeem Dent is going to be a playmaker for years on this team, and I'm not just saying that as a loyal member of Bulldog Nation. The guy is Bobby Boucher... he's a Tackling FOOL!

The best steal of the draft belongs to the Falcons, taking mighty midget Jacquizz Rodgers on the 3rd Day. Rodgers is going to be the Falcons' Dave Megget, without the felony conviction. We're talking a kid who, although small in stature, can run it up the gut AND block LBs coming after his QB. Rodgers told reporters he models his game on Warrick Dunn, and it shows on tape. Plus, he has mad hands. Get him a screen pass in space on a LB, and you'll next find him 20 yards down field.

Picking up some o-line and d-line depth at the end of the draft worked out well, and the Falcons will be going hot and heavy after Ray Edwards or Charles Johnson in free agency to fill their need for the consistent LE Kroy Bierman, who works better as "instant energy off the bench guy," isn't.

As Charlie Sheen would say, the Falcons filled-up this past weekend on tiger's blood and are most certainly... WINNING! (is that still topical... I don't know).

The Seven Things I Know

1) It was completely idiotic to have the first round of the draft on Thursday night.

2) We have all heard by now that ratings for the draft were down 20%, but do not let people like the esteemed Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports try and convince you it was because of labor issues. It was because the first round of the draft was on Thurday night, not Friday.

3) Thursday night is by far the most crowded night of television in this country, and every single show was a brand new episode. We are talking 30 rock, Bones, The Big Bang Theory, Parks and Recreation, Community, and the two biggies, American Idol, and Steve Carell’s final episode of The Office. Against that Murderer’s Row, the NFL Draft didn’t stand a chance.

4) So, WHY did the NFL decide to hold the 1st Round of the Draft on the most crowded night in television? Well, here, guys like Mike Silver have the right answer: GREED. Only this time, the NFL, like the clueless old guy they sometimes appear to be, really had no clue that they could not beat even a Simon-less AI and certainly was not going to beat Steve Carell’s final The Office.

5) The NFL would be wise to have the 1st Round of the draft on Friday, a day that is usually devoid of quality shows (except for Fringe... seriously people, WATCH FRINGE… it is easily the second-best show on television after Justified, both shows have their season finales this week… WATCH!) and much easier to maneuver a DVR around.

6) I am still amazed at how many usually smart people in the media continue to act as if all of the psychological red flags put up by Cam Newton are not the exact same red flags put up by Ryan Leaf. Conceited. Arrogant. Dishonest. Immature.

7) Yeah, Leaf did not win a BCS Title, but he led a whole team of kids who rallied around him to take Washington State to their first Rose Bowl in over FIFTY YEARS, and he did so while remaining a fake, unrepentant douche bag, just like Cam Newton. So, telling me Newton is not the same guy because he “led” a bunch of 20 years olds to a title is a line of b.s. a mile long. Newton is going to set back the Carolina Panthers for years.

As a Falcons fan, I am fine with that, and I cannot wait to watch this train wreck.

Today in History (Yesterday, 01 May 2011 Edition)

We got that mother------!!! Osama Bin Laden is now Satan’s new favorite plaything!

What an AWESOME day to be an American, a former active duty Marine, and a lover of freedom!

Oh, and one more thing: to all of those complete and utter fools on Twitter who are trying to make this into a political “win” for the Democratic Party, I hope you people seriously reprioritize your lives and understand just how pitiful you are.

Yesterday was a win for America, you tools. Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians… it does not matter!

I am happy for our President (even though I didn’t, and won’t vote for him). I am happy for our service men and women who made this victory possible.

But unlike many unfortunate, misguided ideologues, (like Cynthia Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and too many douchey actors, actresses, & writers to count) I am an American FIRST.

Keep politics out of this. This is a win for America and the world, not a political party. This behavior is no better than the Republicans who tried to do the same thing when we got Saddam. They were wrong then, and you are wrong now. You people should be ashamed of yourselves!

Film Real

I do not have anything prepared for Film Real this week. I have been getting all my ducks in a row for school. Been crazy.

Smart Quote

Death comes equally to us all, and makes us all equal when it comes.

John Donne

And do y’all know what the quickest way to equality is? Two 5.56mm NATO FMJ rounds to the head, courtesy of US Navy Seal Team 6.

Rot in hell, Osama Bin Laden!

Hey, Check This Out!

Do I have to say anything else?

Please follow me on Twitter at @UGABugKiller. Thanks!

Monday Morning Falcons Hangover

Could these guys work their magic again if an extended lockout hit the NFL?

Would an Extended Lockout Actually be Good for the Falcons?

There is a line of thought that there are some teams in the league who may be better insulated from the effects of the oncoming lockout than others. Teams that have a stable franchise structure as well a limited amount of holes to fill through free agency and the draft may have a slight upper hand over teams in some kind of transition, such as a new head coach who was not an interim hire such as in Dallas.

Looking out on the landscape of the NFL, it is fairly easy to see that the Super Bowl Champion Packers and runner-up Steelers have the least to lose as far as missed practice time for new draft picks or possible free agent pick-ups, because they appear to have cohesive teams with few needs or staff turnover.

There is a feeling in the Atlanta media that the Falcons are also such a team who could “benefit” from a long lockout, and this is a feeling I do not agree with.

The fact is, the Falcons were thoroughly exposed by Green Bay in many ways during the playoffs. They were exposed as desperately needing a front-four pass-rush, as needed a change-of-pace running back, a reliable nickel-back who does not crumble under pressure, and as needing a speed receiver who can stretch the field.

The team must also have a change in philosophy in the coaching staff that is willing to be more aggressive on the field: willing to take more shots downfield in the passing game, and willing to play less soft zone coverage in the secondary.

The team has no player pieces like that within the organization, so they must fill in those holes through free agency and the draft. Meaning these key players will have no experience running the Falcons’ system, and need the practice time they would surely miss in an extended lockout scenario.

The Falcons play in the hardest division in football, and based on their playoff belly flop, it’s very easy to go back and review their regular season with a more discerning eye and see they were fortunate to win 13 games. With New Orleans healthy and Tampa Bay coming on strong, with two coaching staffs who are not afraid to be aggressive on offense and defense, something that cannot be said about Mike Smith’s play-not-to-lose, unaggressive philosophy, I can’t see the Falcons repeating as NFC South Champs, and I have a hard time seeing them walking into the playoffs without a struggle for a Wild Card slot, a struggle they could lose.

No, unlike some in the Atlanta media, I do not think an extended lockout would be good for the Falcons at all.

Seven Things I Know

1) The best possible thing the NFL and the Players could have decided was to bring in a mediator. I have to wonder if Jerry Richardson’s particular petty emotionality is what brought this decision on, and if it did, at least something good came of it.

2) The Daytona 500 is not an acceptable replacement for football games on a Sunday, and I kind of like NASCAR.

3) Neither is the NBA-All Star game for that matter. As far as the NBA goes, I think of it as I do NCAA basketball: it does not really exist until the post-season starts. I will watch at that point, but not until then.

4) One would think network television would have a better plan in place for having good football replacement programming on the air after the Super Bowl, but they do not. This weekend was a desert, and my couch offered no oasis, as there was literally nothing on TV. Jeff Zucker is not around to blame anymore, broadcast TV people. Get your houses in order.

5) One of the staples of television from when I grew up was the TV Movie or Miniseries of the Week, but the networks have let this become the domain of HBO and Showtime, and it is a shame. A good TV Movie could be a nice salve for our lack of football wounds. I hope some TV Exec will bring back the TV movie or miniseries to a broadcast network.

6) For those of us who love NFL football, this is very good news.

7) Those of us who love football also have to wonder why it took the league and the union this long before serious negotiations have taken place. Whether the public agrees more with owners or players is irrelevant. If a lockout were to take place, the public will blame everyone.

Today in History

On 21 February 1848, Karl Marx and Frederick Engels publish their infamous work, The Communist Manifesto for the first time. For some people, it is akin to an awakening to the corruption controlling their economic livelihood, and therefore, their lives. For many others, this book represents a dangerous, jealousy-tinged, and hate-filled kind of propaganda that should reside on the same bookshelf as Hitler’s Mein Kampf.

Whether you are a true believer or an anti-Communist crusader, the fact remains that in the history of the world, the work of Marx and Engels has left its mark in a very real, tangible way, and is therefore important from a historical perspective. Without the extreme and unnecessarily violent point of view found in this book, it is unlikely that much-needed changes would’ve been made in the way businesses were run in a capitalistic economy and society at that point in time, changes such as the establishment of a 5-day, 40-hour workweek, child labor laws, vacation time, maternity leave, worker’s injury insurance, workplace safety laws, et cetera. In this way, The Communist Manifesto proved itself to be a force for change that was not completely unbalanced or evil.

Film Real

There is an unsettling trend in film over the last few years, and it has come to a head in this year, 2011. This year marks the most sequels ever coming to a theater near you, and this is a bracingly unfortunate development coming from Hollywood.

While some sequels are necessary from a filmmaking standpoint (think the final Harry Potter film coming out in July), did we as a movie-going public really clamor for films like Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, which is a third film in that series of films, films that have been critically lambasted? What about Scream 4? Who the hell was asking for a fourth film in the Scream franchise?

As the American movie-going public becomes more and more ADD-addled and willing to consume crap, the more and more Hollywood is going to be serving 90-minute slices of steaming crap on film like Piranha 3DD.

There is hope on the horizon. Two of the absolute best films of the year, The King’s Speech and Black Swan, films that are well-written, original, and well-acted, films that no prognosticator would have ever thought would be commercially viable, have both crossed over the 100 million dollar mark. This may not seem it, but for two films such as these, films thought to be niche films, to have crossed into triple-digit millions shows that original filmmaking still has a place in Hollywood.

Please, people, I know many sequels look like harmless fun, but they are really not, especially when they are soulless pieces of crap like a Chipmunks sequel or yet another lame sequel that is using “3D.” I know many of you who go to these films do so with your kids in tow, but I want you to remember this idiom: Garbage in, Garbage Out. It’s a phrase used by those in the computer field. It means that if create computer code that is wrong, you will not get the desired result.

Think of your kids as computers. If you continue to subject their pliable, spongy minds to all these crap sequels (not the Potter films, again, those are well-made and have a logical reason beyond the cash register for needing sequels), then they will grow to be undemanding, uncreative, and undiscerning consumers as teenagers and adults. They will just perpetuate and grow the cycle of soulless crap we get now from Hollywood, never demanding more original or better movie-going fare.

Please, do not do that to your kids. Do not turn them into mindless consumers of crap.

Smart Quote

This quote is for all of those film studio execs pumping out mindless sequel after mindless sequel.

True originality consists not in a new manner, but in a new vision.

Edith Wharton

Hey, Check This Out!

Because I, and I am sure y’all, need to see someone hit somebody, here ya go.

Monday Morning Falcons Hangover

This is the guy who's supposed to coach Matt Ryan?

Falcons Fumble on QB Coach Hire

I wrote here that the Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff had a chance to make a bold move with their choice for QB Coach for the Falcons, that they could bring in an offensive mind with a fresh perspective, someone willing to offer a new voice and perhaps signal a move away from the ultra-conservative, vanilla, play-not-to-lose offensive philosophies that Mike Smith cherishes, but that has doomed the team in games that matter. I was looking for someone like Ryan’s former college coach Jeff Jagodzinski to get the job. Instead, Smith and Dimitroff hire recently fired former Cincinnati offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski for the crucial job of further developing Matt Ryan as his QB Coach.

And all I can say to that is, ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?

Bob Bratkowski is perhaps the single-worst hire the Falcons could’ve made. He has never been a QB Coach, on any level, college or pro. His trade as an assistant has been as a wide-receivers coach.

In his NFL career as an offensive coordinator working with the Seahawks and the Bengals, his offenses have finished in the lower half of the league more than half the time. As an offensive coordinator, he’s had some of the NFL’s biggest QB disappointments under his wing in Rick Mirer and Carson Palmer. This is a man ill suited to bring out the best in Matt Ryan, and this hire is yet again proof of Mike Smith’s play-it-safe, play-not-to-lose football philosophy.

Mike Smith went for the guy with a lot of time in the NFL, who doesn’t make waves, who does a job, but doesn’t necessarily do it well. Mike Smith hired a guy who isn’t going to challenge his or Mularkey’s insane Martyball philosophies that have kept the Falcons from winning games that matter. Mike Smith hired a guy who is vanilla, when the Falcons needed someone who is rocky road.

The worst thing about this hire is that this guy, who’s never been a QB Coach, is supposed to shepherd Ryan, supposed to be the guy Ryan can lean on in practices and in games. How the hell can Bob Bratkowski, wide receivers coach and middling offensive coordinator for two teams, by that guy for Ryan? This is the guy who ran offenses featuring Rick Mirer and Carson Palmer for crying out loud!

What a horrible hire by Mike Smith, Thomas Dimitroff and the Falcons organization. This is not the kind of message this coach or this organization needs to sending to paying fans after losing another playoff game in which the team was favored.

How terribly disappointing.

Seven Things I Know

1) With all apologies to @WhitlockJason and his personal crusade against the Pro Football Hall of Fame voting practices, but this righteous indignation that people seem to have both against and for the way it’s currently handled is ridiculous. It’s ridiculous because it won’t change. It won’t change because there people who have power, and they’re not going to do anything to give it up. Not Peter King. Not Len Pasquarelli. None of these guys are going to demand or seek changes. This is the same group who refused to vote in Art Monk for years; who discounted exactly why he was so valuable to his team and worthy of HOF honors.

Art Monk was the heart and soul of the Washington Redskins. He was their unquestioned leader on three Super Bowl winning teams, and on each of those teams, he caught passes from a different QB, meaning that QB was an interchangeable part for those teams, but Monk was truly indispensable in the locker room and on the field. Peter King argued for years that Monk didn’t deserve to be in the HOF because he was only a stat compiler, that his catches never averaged as much yards as Rice or Largent. King refused to dig any deeper, to find out what each and every catch meant for his team, like how Monk led the league at times in catches for first downs, and first down catches on third downs.

These guys who vote for the HOF are ridiculous; they hold grudges, they’re petty... they’re human. So when guys like Jason Whitlock crusade against “unfair” practices of voting for the Pro Football HOF on behalf of a player like Willie Roaf, I just can’t seem to care, because while the system is broken, there just isn’t anything anyone is going to do about it. Wailing about this particular system of HOF voting adds up to sound and fury, signifying... nothing.

2) Roger Goodell needs to shut Jerry Richardson up, and he needs to do it quickly before he turns public opinion against the owners. Men like Jerry Jones, Arthur Blank, and Robert Kraft need to be the voices heard from the owners; men who built billion-dollar businesses from nothing. Short-tempered blowhards like Jerry Richardson, who is one of the cheapest owners in the league, does not need to be speaking to players, the press, or the guys at the coffee shop about labor issues.

3) We haven’t heard a peep in a few days from De Smith. That’s smart. Keep it up, NFLPA.

4) Brett Favre on Dancing with the Stars would be a disaster. Here’s some proof as to why.

5) Cam Newton’s “media-only” workout, which was brokered by his father Cecil Newton, has to put Cecil in the running for Pimp of the Year, 2010-2011 pimping season. I mean, first he tries to pimp his son for $180,000 to Mississippi State, now he’s pimping his son to ESPN and SportsIllustrated. Cecil gotta keep his pimp hand strong! Stay away, Panthers. Stay away.

6) I think if the Cardinals don’t want to lose Larry Fitzgerald and half of their season ticket base, they need to throw their high second round pick at the Eagles for Kevin Kolb. Before March 4th would be good.

7) Weekends without football SUCK.

Today in History

On 14 February 1859, the State of Oregon came into being, the 33rd state in the Union. From the Snake River, to the beautiful Pacific Ocean, Oregon straddles mountains and plains both. Oregon was founded as a state of refuge from the question of slavery, in fact, Oregon’s original Constitution only allowed for “white” habitation, so that slaves could not be brought into the state.

If any of y’all have never been to Oregon, I highly recommend taking a trip there, exploring the Pacific Northwest. I’m partial to both Western Oregon and Washington, and the cities of Portland and Seattle, two of the best, most interesting cities you’ll ever find in the United States, not to mention the cleanest.

Film Real

Today is a good day to go out and pick a film about love, whether it be a timeless classic such as Casablanca or My Fair Lady, or perhaps a funnier take on the subject matter, such as one of my favorites: When Harry Met Sally…

Even if you’re alone, suffering through another St. Valentine’s Day without someone to love, someone to kiss, or someone to hold, you can throw in Bonnie and Clyde, and see the crazy that love can make people do, and be happy to not be in love at the moment.

The fact is, romance films, specifically, romantic comedies are seen in modern times as, well, crap, and that’s not the true case at all. I know it seems that way, what with the proliferation of horrible romcoms staring Sandra Bullock or “romantic” films about fey vampires that glow in sunlight instead of bursting into flames like proper vampires should when exposed to sunlight. These films are poorly acted, poorly scripted, poorly plotted, and poorly paced. They speak down to their audience because the people who make them think we're stupid. Yet women and teen girls (an insane sub-species of human) continue to eat them up like candy, because they’re all Hollywood offers.

Instead of watching Twilight or The Proposal today with your girlfriend or boyfriend, why not turn on Netflix Instant Watch and watch His Girl Friday, starring Cary Grant and Rosalind Russell, instead? It’s a smart film, and you’d be much smarter for watching it instead of the lame Sandra Bullock-Hugh Grant-Reneé Zellwegger movie you were probably going to watch. Yes, it is in black and white, but it’s funny, it’s romantic, and above all, it’s a good film that doesn’t assume you’re a moron. Trust me. You won’t be sorry.

Smart Quote

In honor of St. Valentine’s Day, an apropos quote (used frequently in the film Moulin Rouge!):

The greatest thing you’ll ever learn is just to love, and be loved in return.

eden ahbez, Nature Boy (1948)

Hey, Check This Out!

Here’s a clip from His Girl Friday. This is an outstanding film that happens to also be a romantic comedy. I know, we’ve been taught by a mountain of modern romcom crap that this is impossible, but it’s true. Check it out. The snappy, rapid-fire dialogue, the chemistry, it’s all there.

And please, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter at @UGABugKiller. Thanks!

Thank Goodell It's Friday!

Dimitroff Awarded, Coleman Released

This week after the Super Bowl has been a rather quiet week for all concerned at Flowery Branch (the town where the Falcons are head quartered). There was and is of course the Bon Jovi rumor floating around, but it remains just that, a rumor, and a rumor Arthur Blank refuses on which to comment. Most importantly, there seems to be no movement at all in choosing/hiring someone to come in and be Matt Ryan’s QB Coach, which is puzzling considering just how important that position is to fill. Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey need to get a move-on in making their choice, regardless of lack of movement in labor negotiation talks.

In this vacuum of information, there is some Falcons news of note. First off, General Manager Thomas Dimitroff has been named Sporting News NFL Executive of the Year, and since there is no AP equivalent for this award, it is largely recognized as the official award for NFL executives, so of course, congratulations must be made to Mr. Dimitroff. Obviously, this is a regular season award, as are all of the NFL awards. If it were a postseason award, the natural winner would have been Ted Thompson of the Green Bay Packers. As it is, although the Falcons spectacularly failed in the post-season, that was more a failure of non-aggressive and play-not-to-lose coaching than a failure of the team that was put together by Mr. Dimitroff, so the award was well-given for the man who put together a 13-3 team that was the NFC's top-seeded playoff team, and should be well-received.

In the unfortunate news column for the week, the Falcons released popular locker room fixture Erik Coleman this week. Coleman has been a fixture at safety for the team the last three years, but lost his starting spot to William Moore this season after sustaining a knee injury, and also because of his declining play at the position. The Falcons rightly couldn’t justify paying a back-up safety over three million dollars a year, so Coleman, who is universally respected and well liked by his teammates, had to go. Also complicating matters for the Falcons’ brass was that before he was released, Coleman dropped his agent and signed on with Drew Rosenhaus, an agent with whom the Falcons have largely refused to work (there is not a single Rosenhaus client on the team). Coleman, always the class act, took to twitter this week to thank the fans and the Falcons’ organization for his time in Atlanta, and the fans and his teammates will miss him and his presence on the team. Good luck in your wherever you end up, Erik Coleman!

Gameday Predictions (Lockout Edition)

This is where I’d usually write my predictions for the week’s slate of games, but since the games are over, I’ll instead write my predictions on when the coming Lockout will be over. This Friday, I’ll do the odds based on the Lockout ending nearest to these upcoming holidays.

St. Patrick’s Day: 150-1 Odds.

Easter: 20-1 Odds.

Memorial Day: 15-1 Odds

4th of July: 10-1 Odds.

Labor Day: 3-2 Odds

Halloween: 50-1 Odds

Thanksgiving: 250-1 Odds

Christmas Day: 500-1 Odds

New Years Day: 1,000-1 Odds

Basically, I don’t see the Lockout ending in the first few weeks (St. Patrick’s Day, Easter, and the odds getting better the longer it gets into summer, with Labor Day being the closest Holiday to the end of the Lockout, and then after that, the odds get exponentially bigger, because I just don’t see the Player’s Union staying strong while missing that many checks.

If the owners can make it until Labor Day, the Union will break if any game checks are missed. Guaranteed.

Today In History

On 11 February 1990, Nelson Mandela is released from prison after being held for 27 years, first at the infamous Robben Island, then Victor Verser Prison outside Cape Town.

After his release, Mandela again assumed a leadership position with the African National Congress and worked with the ruling Afrikaner population to end apartheid once and for all, helping to implement the first free election in South African history in 1994. The ANC swept to victory, and Mandela was elected as South Africa’s first black President.

The Jukebox

Yesterday was the birthday of noted film and television composer Jerry Goldsmith, who would’ve been 82 years old had he still been with us. Jerry Goldsmith is an Oscar-winning composer (for his work on The Omen) and was the writer of some of film’s most iconic and well-known scores.

(I know some of y’all reading this could probably give a rat’s butt about film scoring, but understand this historical allegory: if film is to the masses in the modern era what opera was 400 years ago, then men like John Williams, Jerry Goldsmith, Elmer Bernstein, and Ennio Morricone are like Mozart, Beethoven, Wagner, and Rossini. Imagine Star Wars or The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly without their iconic music… it’s simply not the same.)

Goldsmith was known for pushing the envelope with new technologies and being evocative with his use of non-contemporary instruments in his work. He is probably best known in film circles for his work on Star Trek, composing the scores for five of the pre-JJ Abrams films, including the sweeping score for Star Trek: The Motion Picture, whose main theme was reused for Star Trek: The Next Generation. Goldsmith also wrote the iconic score for Patton, the percussion-laden score for Planet of the Apes, and the tense music for Ridley Scott’s Alien.

My favorite Goldsmith score, fittingly, is for the sports movie classic, Rudy. It is Jerry’s sweeping music that catches our emotions and sends them soaring when Sean Astin, playing Rudy, reads his Notre Dame acceptance letter, when he begins spring practice, when he leads the team out on the field, or most memorably, when he is carried off of it. As Rudy is one of a handful of films that can create a dusty atmosphere for men as they watch it, Jerry Goldsmith’s music has just as much to do with creating that atmosphere as anything else in Rudy.

Happy birthday, Jerry Goldsmith! Film score lovers miss you!

Smart Quote

Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt.

Julius Caesar, De Bello Gallico, Book III, Chapter XVIII

Roughly translated from the Latin, it says:

Men (or Man) willingly believe what they wish.

This is another of way of saying that our perceptions and desires are, or largely influence, our reality. A crafty politician as smart as Caesar knew this well, using this knowledge to secure his own popularity with the plebeian mob even at the cost of alienating the patrician Senate.

Hey, Check This Out!

In honor of Jerry Goldsmith and my favorite score of his, here is my favorite scene (both musically, and action-wise) from Rudy, the spring practice montage. Watch it, and try to pay attention to the score, how is fuels the exciting action on the screen as well as taps into our emotions as observers. Just a great movie moment.

And while you're at it, follow me on Twitter at @UGABugKiller... thanks!

How Would a Lockout Affect the Atlanta Falcons?

As we move closer to the Super Bowl in a week and a half, we move closer to the end of the NFL season. This particular year, the end of the season brings with it more than the normal, “How will I survive my weekends without football to occupy my time” trepidation. The end of this season brings a question that should never be asked by a football fan: “Will there be football in 2011?”

I don’t want to spend any time on the how’s and the why’s of how America’s most successful and profitable professional sports business could come to a crashing stop. I don’t want to place blame on anyone, even if they actually deserve blame. No, I just want to quantify how the three likely scenarios (and the one, suicidal nuclear scenario) involving a lockout will affect the team I follow, the Atlanta Falcons.

In scenario number 1, the scenario that every single red-blooded American football fan prays for, there is no lockout. Sane men meet in the month of February and learn to share their millions in a way that is fair, that introduces a rookie salary cap (thus diminishing the power of certain men of low intentions), that boots the ridiculous idea of an 18 game season, and that allows all players to report to mini-camps and off-season workouts to prepare for a great 2011 season. I realize that this is second-least likely scenario to happen out of the four, but I can dream, can’t I? This scenario would of course have the minimum impact upon the Falcons. Or would it?

As made painfully obvious by their embarrassing playoff beat down at the hands of the Packers (at home), the Falcons have some changes they must make to their team philosophy. Basically, they need to become more aggressive in coaching offense and defense. Mike Smith needs to stop coaching scared. With a full off-season of work and meetings with the smartest GM in the NFL, Thomas Dimitroff, it would boggle my mind if Smith couldn’t be persuaded to change or adapt his football philosophy; to take the shackles off of Matt Ryan and the offense, and to allow Brian Van Gorder to coach the Falcons’ defense as he once did the Georgia defenses that dominated the SEC for the first few years of the 00’s. In that vein of thinking, this scenario would have a fairly large impact on the Falcons and how the team would look for the 2011 season. They would be similar to the 2010 team, but they would be more dangerous and more effective, and dare-I-say-it… more dominating (which, even with 13 wins, they never were particularly dominating). Dimitroff and Smith are smart football men, even though Smith seems far too stubborn for his own good. In this scenario, I could see the Falcons (if they decide to be more aggressive as a team) in a three-way battle with the Saints and Bucs for the NFC South title and making the playoffs at 12-4.

In scenario number 2, there is a lockout causing teams to miss all of the mini-camps, rookie camps, and off-season workouts, not to mention any free agent signing period, but the lockout ends just before the start of training camps. The NFL pushes back the start of the season by two weeks, giving all teams a week to sign free agents and an additional week of practices to get their rookies and free agents up to speed in the team’s playbook. In this scenario, I don’t see the 2011 Falcons from being much different than the 2010 Falcons in the beginning of the season. Thought it could go either way, I see the team continuing to play Martyball to the consternation of fans. Smith will continue to handcuff Ryan and not allow him to run the no-huddle offense any more than he has in the past, even though Ryan is almost as masterful in Atlanta’s no-huddle as Peyton Manning is in his. As the season progresses, the Falcons should be able to open up the offense more, but Mike Smith is a creature of habit as a coach, and that speculation is just that, speculation. In this scenario, I see the Falcons adding a few new wrinkles to their offense and defense, but finishing no better than a 10-6 team, battling it out for the wild card six-seed.

In scenario number 3, the lockout extends until September, and the free agent and training camp period are so compressed to bring the season in three weeks late, that the Falcons are not able to do anything different than they did in 2010. In this scenario, I don’t envision the team approaching the success in 2011 that they had this past season. I see 8-8 or 9-7 and no playoff birth. Playing Martyball simply won’t get it done anymore in Atlanta, and this is the scenario that hurts the Falcons the most, because it forces them to keep their philosophies intact, and doesn’t allow the coaching staff to take better advantage of their personnel (such as Harry Douglas on offense and Sean Witherspoon on defense) that could use more plays designed for their speed and skill. It is in mini-camps and training camp where coaches can really change and improve their team. Without that time, the Falcons are doomed. It goes without saying that they’re doomed anyway if Mike Smith proves intractable when it comes to adapting his team philosophy to better suit the modern NFL. I like Smitty. I want him to win a Super Bowl for the Falcons. I don’t want him to end up like this guy who refused to evolve, who was too stubborn to change; because that’s a road that Smith is in peril of treading.

And what’s the suicidal, nuclear option that’s facing the Falcons and the NFL if a new collective bargaining agreement can’t be reached with the NFLPA? Do I even have to say the words? I’ll just let you click on the links to this guy and this guy to remember what two idiots who allow their leagues to be shut down look like.

If the nuclear scenario goes into effect, NFL fans across the nation (and Antonio Cromartie’s 79 kids) will be the ones who suffer the most. Those of us who also love college football equally (or even more so) will suffer less, of course. Well, that is, unless you’re a fan of a college team coming off of it’s worst season in 15 years sporting an embattled coach and a fan and alumni base divided over the fact that the coach was brought back. Then it could quite possibly be the worst autumn of your life if that program isn’t restored to glory and there’s no NFL to soothe your pain. I’d hate to be that guy.

Oh, wait… crap.

Follow me on twitter at @UGABugKiller.