[NOTE: I write about the Carolina Panthers for Around Pro Football, but with our editor's permission I'm including my Super Bowl prediction column. I originally wrote this for my own blog, which can be found here. You can also follow me on Twitter @JasonBlackwood.]
After the Steelers beat the Jets and the Packers beat the Bears two weekends ago, Vegas set an early line that had Green Bay favored to win the Super Bowl by 2.5. Last I checked, the line had jumped to three, meaning more people are taking the Pack to cover that spread than they are the Steel.
This event matches what are almost certainly the two largest fan bases in all of football (the Cowboys are not candidates because it is unclear whether or not they have any real fans) in what has surely been a boon for the local economy. I have no doubt the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex can hold its own with most Super Bowl sites, but the area has been dominated with a winter storm all week, something that has surely put a damper on the occasion. It's not as if Packers and Steelers fans aren't used to the weather, but the scene has once again brought up the argument of whether (no pun intended) or not certain cities are Super Bowl-worthy. The event has a way of really embarrassing any place that proves it can't handle the situation. Again, in fairness to DFW, I'm confident that there are enough hotels, bars, taxis, strippers, and unique food joints to handle the world's largest sporting event, but the skies are literally dumping on the whole aura. This has been a remarkably uneventful Super Bowl week. The game should always take place in one of our nation's party capitals - Miami, New Orleans, or Las Vegas (Vegas, of course, would need to build a stadium) - areas that almost certainly never have to worry about winter storms (hurricanes and oil spills are another matter). If there is a chance people can become critically injured by ice falling off the roof of your stadium, then you probably don't need to be hosting the Super Bowl. With that said, let's get to the game.
The word on the street largely seems to be that the Steelers overachieved a bit to get here, winning two home games in very unconvincing fashion and basically getting lucky by not having to play the Patriots, a team that picked their defense apart earlier in the year. That may be true, but there's a reason these guys are in the hunt pretty much year after year: they draft so well that it doesn't seem to matter when players get old or get hurt - someone is always willing to step in and perform well. Their offensive line has been banged up all year but as I said in my last post that shouldn't matter because Ben Roethlisberger actually becomes more effective when he's forced to make plays on the fly. The absence of center Maurkice Pouncey, however, should be cause for concern.
The main reason Pittsburgh is here, of course, is Roethlisberger. One can never count the Steelers out when that guy is on the field. He just makes plays. If he has snap issues with Pouncey being out, I expect his rushing yardage total to go up. If the Steelers can't run the ball, I expect him to get away from the rush and find his receivers open deep. I just expect Roethlisberger to do great things.
(Note: I am definitely among those who are going to be a bit sick if Big Ben leads the Steelers to a title again this year because of what kind of guy he is. I don't really want to write that column, though, and I don't have to because Andrew Sharp already did. I suggest you read it if you're having trouble deciding whom to cheer for on Sunday. Or if you're a Steelers fan in denial.)
As far as the Packers are concerned, the secret is out. The overwhelming consensus now is that this truly was a title contender from the get-go but the team suffered enough injuries and lost enough close games that they ended up going 10-6 instead of 13-3 or 14-2, as we touched on in the last blog entry.... That Aaron Rodgers is just a stud, possibly ready to deny the Steelers dynasty status and stake his claim as the league's best quarterback all at the same time.... That they are far more than just Rodgers - look how good that defense was against the Bears, and unsung players continue to step up. Green Bay has veterans such as Charles Woodson, hungry for his first title; they have young stars like Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Tramon Williams; they have nose tackle B.J. Raji up against an unproven Steelers center (Legursky, Pouncey's replacement). They have running back James Starks, who has suddenly given the Pack a ground game once again (star back Ryan Grant was among those hurt earlier in the year).
But let's be honest, this is about Rodgers.
Come back with me to 2008, will you?
Packers legend Brett Favre was retired. Green Bay was ready to move on with Rodgers, who had been sitting for three years, and the team had already gone through minicamp workouts and begun training camp with him as their leader and quarterback when....Favre un-retired. (I am better at un-retiring than he is, I'd like to add.) He wanted to come back and play again, naturally for the Packers, whose reaction was basically, "Uhhhhhh.....welllll.....umm...really?? Isn't retirement cool and all? You don't really want to come back, do you?" The team eventually scheduled a really awkward meeting with Favre, and afterward declared him "mentally unfit to lead this team" or something to that effect. Packers fans, of course, were outraged. The team's public stance was basically that they weren't sure he was ready to come back - that maybe his head wasn't in the right place. And this was a man who had just led them to within a game of the Super Bowl the previous season. Do you really think that was the reason they didn't want him back?
Of course not. It's because they knew Rodgers was better. Green Bay would have happily dumped him and handed the keys back to Favre if they felt otherwise. Of course they would have. Why? Because winning means more than doing the right thing in pro sports, unfortunately. There are examples of it everywhere. The Packers said no to the most famous player in their history - again, infuriating their fans in the process - because they knew Rodgers would give them a better chance to win.
Fast-forward to the present day, and you will see that Rodgers' numbers in his first three seasons as a starter compare quite favorably with those of Favre during the best three seasons of his career (1995-97, when he won three straight MVP awards). If he can lead this team to victory tomorrow, he will have just as many rings (1) as Favre does, as well. You might say that Rodgers will have single-handedly buried the Favre era in Wisconsin, and with great authority. He handled the Favre situation with incredible class, never dissing his predecessor in public or getting upset with the fans who wanted the legend to take his job back. Instead, Rodgers just went out on the field and became a star.
I watched the Packers-Falcons game three weeks ago with my jaw practically stuck to the floor. This Green Bay team just reaches another level when they play in a dome - essentially the scenario on Sunday - because they are so much faster and have so many weapons. Everyone talks about the Steelers defense, and while they do make plays against the pass, they are predominantly a run defense. The Steelers can be exposed by teams who can spread the field; no one does that better than Green Bay. This truly is the worst possible matchup this season for Pittsburgh.
Everyone is planting storylines for this one, about how it matches two legendary franchises, two great teams, and two rabid fan bases. This is already being touted as one of the more exciting games, and they haven't even kicked off yet.
I'm sorry, but no. This is about Aaron Rodgers. Super Bowl XLV will be his official coronation as the league's new star, and if the Steelers can't make a big play on defense, this might not be close. I just hope someone keeps Aaron away from the Kardashians. Packers 38, Steelers 28.
After the Steelers beat the Jets and the Packers beat the Bears two weekends ago, Vegas set an early line that had Green Bay favored to win the Super Bowl by 2.5. Last I checked, the line had jumped to three, meaning more people are taking the Pack to cover that spread than they are the Steel.
This event matches what are almost certainly the two largest fan bases in all of football (the Cowboys are not candidates because it is unclear whether or not they have any real fans) in what has surely been a boon for the local economy. I have no doubt the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex can hold its own with most Super Bowl sites, but the area has been dominated with a winter storm all week, something that has surely put a damper on the occasion. It's not as if Packers and Steelers fans aren't used to the weather, but the scene has once again brought up the argument of whether (no pun intended) or not certain cities are Super Bowl-worthy. The event has a way of really embarrassing any place that proves it can't handle the situation. Again, in fairness to DFW, I'm confident that there are enough hotels, bars, taxis, strippers, and unique food joints to handle the world's largest sporting event, but the skies are literally dumping on the whole aura. This has been a remarkably uneventful Super Bowl week. The game should always take place in one of our nation's party capitals - Miami, New Orleans, or Las Vegas (Vegas, of course, would need to build a stadium) - areas that almost certainly never have to worry about winter storms (hurricanes and oil spills are another matter). If there is a chance people can become critically injured by ice falling off the roof of your stadium, then you probably don't need to be hosting the Super Bowl. With that said, let's get to the game.
The word on the street largely seems to be that the Steelers overachieved a bit to get here, winning two home games in very unconvincing fashion and basically getting lucky by not having to play the Patriots, a team that picked their defense apart earlier in the year. That may be true, but there's a reason these guys are in the hunt pretty much year after year: they draft so well that it doesn't seem to matter when players get old or get hurt - someone is always willing to step in and perform well. Their offensive line has been banged up all year but as I said in my last post that shouldn't matter because Ben Roethlisberger actually becomes more effective when he's forced to make plays on the fly. The absence of center Maurkice Pouncey, however, should be cause for concern.
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| Jason really doesn't want to see Big Ben win another Super Bowl... |
(Note: I am definitely among those who are going to be a bit sick if Big Ben leads the Steelers to a title again this year because of what kind of guy he is. I don't really want to write that column, though, and I don't have to because Andrew Sharp already did. I suggest you read it if you're having trouble deciding whom to cheer for on Sunday. Or if you're a Steelers fan in denial.)
As far as the Packers are concerned, the secret is out. The overwhelming consensus now is that this truly was a title contender from the get-go but the team suffered enough injuries and lost enough close games that they ended up going 10-6 instead of 13-3 or 14-2, as we touched on in the last blog entry.... That Aaron Rodgers is just a stud, possibly ready to deny the Steelers dynasty status and stake his claim as the league's best quarterback all at the same time.... That they are far more than just Rodgers - look how good that defense was against the Bears, and unsung players continue to step up. Green Bay has veterans such as Charles Woodson, hungry for his first title; they have young stars like Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Tramon Williams; they have nose tackle B.J. Raji up against an unproven Steelers center (Legursky, Pouncey's replacement). They have running back James Starks, who has suddenly given the Pack a ground game once again (star back Ryan Grant was among those hurt earlier in the year).
But let's be honest, this is about Rodgers.
Come back with me to 2008, will you?
Packers legend Brett Favre was retired. Green Bay was ready to move on with Rodgers, who had been sitting for three years, and the team had already gone through minicamp workouts and begun training camp with him as their leader and quarterback when....Favre un-retired. (I am better at un-retiring than he is, I'd like to add.) He wanted to come back and play again, naturally for the Packers, whose reaction was basically, "Uhhhhhh.....welllll.....umm...really?? Isn't retirement cool and all? You don't really want to come back, do you?" The team eventually scheduled a really awkward meeting with Favre, and afterward declared him "mentally unfit to lead this team" or something to that effect. Packers fans, of course, were outraged. The team's public stance was basically that they weren't sure he was ready to come back - that maybe his head wasn't in the right place. And this was a man who had just led them to within a game of the Super Bowl the previous season. Do you really think that was the reason they didn't want him back?
 |
| ...and because of this guy, he won't have to. |
Fast-forward to the present day, and you will see that Rodgers' numbers in his first three seasons as a starter compare quite favorably with those of Favre during the best three seasons of his career (1995-97, when he won three straight MVP awards). If he can lead this team to victory tomorrow, he will have just as many rings (1) as Favre does, as well. You might say that Rodgers will have single-handedly buried the Favre era in Wisconsin, and with great authority. He handled the Favre situation with incredible class, never dissing his predecessor in public or getting upset with the fans who wanted the legend to take his job back. Instead, Rodgers just went out on the field and became a star.
I watched the Packers-Falcons game three weeks ago with my jaw practically stuck to the floor. This Green Bay team just reaches another level when they play in a dome - essentially the scenario on Sunday - because they are so much faster and have so many weapons. Everyone talks about the Steelers defense, and while they do make plays against the pass, they are predominantly a run defense. The Steelers can be exposed by teams who can spread the field; no one does that better than Green Bay. This truly is the worst possible matchup this season for Pittsburgh.
Everyone is planting storylines for this one, about how it matches two legendary franchises, two great teams, and two rabid fan bases. This is already being touted as one of the more exciting games, and they haven't even kicked off yet.
I'm sorry, but no. This is about Aaron Rodgers. Super Bowl XLV will be his official coronation as the league's new star, and if the Steelers can't make a big play on defense, this might not be close. I just hope someone keeps Aaron away from the Kardashians. Packers 38, Steelers 28.
Superbowl XLV pressure is nothing new for the Packers, they've played before under extreme pressure and overcame it. I would say the fanatics are under more pressure fighting with there opposing Steelers fanatics on which team is the best of all time.
ReplyDeletego packers!
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